World Cup 2026 · model

An Elo + attack/defense model predicts every match. The scoreline shown is the points-optimal pick for 5/3/2 scoring (exact / goal-difference / outcome) — not always the single most likely score. Each game shows the original pre-tournament call, the actual result, and an updated pick — ratings re-learn from real results as they land. 72/72 group games played.

KickoffMatchOriginalActualUpdated

Thu 11 June

Group A · 20:00

Mexico 🇲🇽v🇿🇦 South AfricaGroup A

Original

2 – 0xG 2.1–0.6

72% / 19% / 9%

Actual

2 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.1–0.6

72% / 20% / 9%

Fri 12 June

Group A · 03:00

South Korea 🇰🇷v🇨🇿 Czech RepublicGroup A

Original

2 – 1xG 1.4–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

38% / 27% / 34%

Actual

2 – 1

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

40% / 27% / 32%

Group B · 20:00

Canada 🇨🇦v🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaGroup B

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8

60% / 24% / 16%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

54% / 26% / 21%

Sat 13 June

Group D · 02:00

United States 🇺🇸v🇵🇾 ParaguayGroup D

Original

2 – 1xG 1.4–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

38% / 28% / 34%

Actual

4 – 1

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

41% / 28% / 32%

Group B · 20:00

Qatar 🇶🇦v🇨🇭 SwitzerlandGroup B

Original

0 – 2xG 0.5–2.2

7% / 18% / 76%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

0 – 2xG 0.5–2.3

5% / 16% / 79%

Group C · 23:00

Brazil 🇧🇷v🇲🇦 MoroccoGroup C

Original

1 – 0xG 1.6–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

47% / 27% / 26%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.4–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

42% / 28% / 31%

Sun 14 June

Group C · 02:00

Haiti 🇭🇹v🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 ScotlandGroup C

Original

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

20% / 25% / 55%

Actual

0 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

20% / 25% / 55%

Group D · 05:00

Australia 🇦🇺v🇹🇷 TurkeyGroup D

Original

0 – 1xG 1.1–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

25% / 27% / 48%

Actual

2 – 0

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.2–1.5(likeliest 1–1)

30% / 27% / 43%

Group E · 18:00

Germany 🇩🇪v🇨🇼 CuraçaoGroup E

Original

2 – 0xG 2.3–0.5

79% / 16% / 5%

Actual

7 – 1

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.3–0.5

77% / 17% / 6%

Group F · 21:00

Netherlands 🇳🇱v🇯🇵 JapanGroup F

Original

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

40% / 27% / 33%

Actual

2 – 2

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

42% / 27% / 31%

Mon 15 June

Group E · 00:00

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮v🇪🇨 EcuadorGroup E

Original

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

21% / 27% / 53%

Actual

1 – 0

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.1–1.5(likeliest 1–1)

27% / 28% / 45%

Group F · 03:00

Sweden 🇸🇪v🇹🇳 TunisiaGroup F

Original

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

44% / 27% / 29%

Actual

5 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

51% / 26% / 23%

Group H · 17:00

Spain 🇪🇸v🇨🇻 Cape VerdeGroup H

Original

2 – 0xG 2.4–0.4

82% / 14% / 4%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.5–0.4

82% / 14% / 4%

Group G · 20:00

Belgium 🇧🇪v🇪🇬 EgyptGroup G

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

54% / 25% / 21%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

55% / 25% / 20%

Group H · 23:00

Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦v🇺🇾 UruguayGroup H

Original

0 – 1xG 0.7–1.8

14% / 24% / 63%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.8–1.7

17% / 25% / 58%

Tue 16 June

Group G · 02:00

Iran 🇮🇷v🇳🇿 New ZealandGroup G

Original

2 – 1xG 1.7–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

52% / 25% / 23%

Actual

2 – 2

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.8–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

53% / 25% / 22%

Group I · 20:00

France 🇫🇷v🇸🇳 SenegalGroup I

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

52% / 26% / 22%

Actual

3 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

55% / 25% / 19%

Group I · 23:00

Iraq 🇮🇶v🇳🇴 NorwayGroup I

Original

0 – 1xG 0.8–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

13% / 22% / 65%

Actual

1 – 4

Updated

0 – 2xG 0.7–2.1

10% / 20% / 70%

Wed 17 June

Group J · 02:00

Argentina 🇦🇷v🇩🇿 AlgeriaGroup J

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

63% / 23% / 14%

Actual

3 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 2.0–0.7(likeliest 2–0)

69% / 21% / 10%

Group J · 05:00

Austria 🇦🇹v🇯🇴 JordanGroup J

Original

1 – 0xG 1.6–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

50% / 26% / 23%

Actual

3 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

53% / 26% / 21%

Group K · 18:00

Portugal 🇵🇹v🇨🇩 DR CongoGroup K

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

64% / 23% / 13%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8

61% / 24% / 15%

Group L · 21:00

England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿v🇭🇷 CroatiaGroup L

Original

1 – 0xG 1.6–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

47% / 27% / 26%

Actual

4 – 2

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–0.9(likeliest 1–1)

55% / 25% / 19%

Thu 18 June

Group L · 00:00

Ghana 🇬🇭v🇵🇦 PanamaGroup L

Original

0 – 1xG 1.1–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

24% / 26% / 50%

Actual

1 – 0

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.5(likeliest 1–1)

32% / 28% / 41%

Group K · 03:00

Uzbekistan 🇺🇿v🇨🇴 ColombiaGroup K

Original

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.8

16% / 24% / 59%

Actual

1 – 3

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.7–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

12% / 22% / 66%

Group A · 17:00

Czech Republic 🇨🇿v🇿🇦 South AfricaGroup A

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

54% / 25% / 20%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.6–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

47% / 27% / 26%

Group B · 20:00

Switzerland 🇨🇭v🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaGroup B

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

61% / 24% / 15%

Actual

4 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

63% / 23% / 14%

Group B · 23:00

Canada 🇨🇦v🇶🇦 QatarGroup B

Original

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.5

75% / 18% / 7%

Actual

6 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.1–0.7

70% / 20% / 10%

Fri 19 June

Group A · 02:00

Mexico 🇲🇽v🇰🇷 South KoreaGroup A

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

52% / 26% / 22%

Actual

1 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.8–0.9(likeliest 1–1)

57% / 25% / 18%

Group D · 20:00

United States 🇺🇸v🇦🇺 AustraliaGroup D

Original

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

41% / 27% / 31%

Actual

2 – 0

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

41% / 27% / 31%

Group C · 23:00

Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿v🇲🇦 MoroccoGroup C

Original

0 – 1xG 1.2–1.5(likeliest 1–1)

29% / 28% / 44%

Actual

0 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

22% / 26% / 52%

Sat 20 June

Group C · 01:30

Brazil 🇧🇷v🇭🇹 HaitiGroup C

Original

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.6

73% / 19% / 8%

Actual

3 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.6

75% / 18% / 7%

Group D · 04:00

Turkey 🇹🇷v🇵🇾 ParaguayGroup D

Original

1 – 0xG 1.5–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

45% / 27% / 28%

Actual

0 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.5–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

42% / 28% / 30%

Group F · 18:00

Netherlands 🇳🇱v🇸🇪 SwedenGroup F

Original

1 – 0xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

57% / 24% / 19%

Actual

5 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

56% / 25% / 19%

Group E · 21:00

Germany 🇩🇪v🇨🇮 Ivory CoastGroup E

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–0.9(likeliest 1–1)

55% / 25% / 19%

Actual

2 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

51% / 26% / 23%

Sun 21 June

Group E · 01:00

Ecuador 🇪🇨v🇨🇼 CuraçaoGroup E

Original

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.5

76% / 18% / 6%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 2.0–0.6(likeliest 2–0)

71% / 20% / 9%

Group F · 05:00

Tunisia 🇹🇳v🇯🇵 JapanGroup F

Original

0 – 1xG 0.8–1.9(likeliest 0–2)

16% / 24% / 61%

Actual

0 – 4

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.8–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

13% / 22% / 65%

Group H · 17:00

Spain 🇪🇸v🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaGroup H

Original

2 – 0xG 2.4–0.4

82% / 14% / 4%

Actual

4 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.5–0.4

82% / 14% / 4%

Group G · 20:00

Belgium 🇧🇪v🇮🇷 IranGroup G

Original

2 – 1xG 1.7–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

50% / 26% / 24%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

55% / 25% / 20%

Group H · 23:00

Uruguay 🇺🇾v🇨🇻 Cape VerdeGroup H

Original

1 – 0xG 1.8–0.7

63% / 24% / 14%

Actual

2 – 2

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–0.9(likeliest 1–1)

56% / 26% / 18%

Mon 22 June

Group G · 02:00

New Zealand 🇳🇿v🇪🇬 EgyptGroup G

Original

1 – 2xG 1.1–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

26% / 27% / 48%

Actual

1 – 3

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

22% / 26% / 52%

Group J · 18:00

Argentina 🇦🇷v🇦🇹 AustriaGroup J

Original

1 – 0xG 1.8–0.9

59% / 24% / 16%

Actual

2 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.7(likeliest 2–0)

65% / 22% / 13%

Group I · 22:00

France 🇫🇷v🇮🇶 IraqGroup I

Original

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.5

76% / 18% / 7%

Actual

3 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.3–0.5

79% / 16% / 5%

Tue 23 June

Group I · 01:00

Norway 🇳🇴v🇸🇳 SenegalGroup I

Original

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

40% / 27% / 33%

Actual

3 – 2

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.6–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

45% / 27% / 28%

Group J · 04:00

Jordan 🇯🇴v🇩🇿 AlgeriaGroup J

Original

1 – 2xG 1.2–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

27% / 27% / 46%

Actual

1 – 2

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.1–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

25% / 26% / 49%

Group K · 18:00

Portugal 🇵🇹v🇺🇿 UzbekistanGroup K

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

62% / 23% / 15%

Actual

5 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 2.0–0.7(likeliest 2–0)

68% / 21% / 11%

Group L · 21:00

England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿v🇬🇭 GhanaGroup L

Original

2 – 0xG 2.2–0.5

77% / 17% / 6%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.3–0.4

79% / 16% / 5%

Wed 24 June

Group L · 00:00

Panama 🇵🇦v🇭🇷 CroatiaGroup L

Original

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

21% / 26% / 54%

Actual

0 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

19% / 25% / 56%

Group K · 03:00

Colombia 🇨🇴v🇨🇩 DR CongoGroup K

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8

62% / 24% / 15%

Actual

1 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.8–0.9

59% / 24% / 16%

Group B · 20:00

Switzerland 🇨🇭v🇨🇦 CanadaGroup B

Original

2 – 1xG 1.4–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

37% / 28% / 35%

Actual

2 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.5–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

45% / 27% / 27%

Group B · 20:00

Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦v🇶🇦 QatarGroup B

Original

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

51% / 26% / 23%

Actual

3 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.7–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

53% / 26% / 21%

Group C · 23:00

Morocco 🇲🇦v🇭🇹 HaitiGroup C

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

63% / 23% / 14%

Actual

4 – 2

Updated

2 – 0xG 2.1–0.7

70% / 20% / 10%

Group C · 23:00

Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿v🇧🇷 BrazilGroup C

Original

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

20% / 25% / 55%

Actual

0 – 3

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

18% / 25% / 58%

Thu 25 June

Group A · 02:00

Czech Republic 🇨🇿v🇲🇽 MexicoGroup A

Original

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

20% / 25% / 54%

Actual

0 – 3

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.8–1.9(likeliest 0–2)

15% / 23% / 62%

Group A · 02:00

South Africa 🇿🇦v🇰🇷 South KoreaGroup A

Original

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.8(likeliest 1–1)

19% / 25% / 56%

Actual

1 – 0

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.0–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

23% / 26% / 51%

Group E · 21:00

Curaçao 🇨🇼v🇨🇮 Ivory CoastGroup E

Original

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.9(likeliest 0–2)

16% / 24% / 61%

Actual

0 – 2

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.8–1.9(likeliest 0–2)

14% / 23% / 63%

Group E · 21:00

Ecuador 🇪🇨v🇩🇪 GermanyGroup E

Original

0 – 1xG 1.2–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

33% / 28% / 38%

Actual

2 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 1.2–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

30% / 28% / 42%

Fri 26 June

Group F · 00:00

Tunisia 🇹🇳v🇳🇱 NetherlandsGroup F

Original

0 – 1xG 0.8–1.9(likeliest 0–2)

13% / 23% / 64%

Actual

1 – 3

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.6–2.1(likeliest 0–2)

10% / 20% / 70%

Group F · 00:00

Japan 🇯🇵v🇸🇪 SwedenGroup F

Original

2 – 1xG 1.8–1.0(likeliest 1–1)

53% / 25% / 22%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.7–1.1(likeliest 1–1)

51% / 26% / 23%

Group D · 03:00

Turkey 🇹🇷v🇺🇸 United StatesGroup D

Original

2 – 1xG 1.5–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

43% / 27% / 30%

Actual

3 – 2

Updated

2 – 1xG 1.4–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

38% / 27% / 35%

Group D · 03:00

Paraguay 🇵🇾v🇦🇺 AustraliaGroup D

Original

1 – 0xG 1.4–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

39% / 28% / 33%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

1 – 1xG 1.3–1.3

36% / 28% / 35%

Group I · 20:00

Senegal 🇸🇳v🇮🇶 IraqGroup I

Original

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8

61% / 24% / 16%

Actual

5 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8(likeliest 2–0)

61% / 24% / 16%

Group I · 20:00

Norway 🇳🇴v🇫🇷 FranceGroup I

Original

1 – 2xG 1.1–1.7(likeliest 1–1)

25% / 26% / 49%

Actual

1 – 4

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.2–1.6(likeliest 1–1)

27% / 27% / 46%

Sat 27 June

Group H · 01:00

Uruguay 🇺🇾v🇪🇸 SpainGroup H

Original

0 – 1xG 0.9–1.8

16% / 24% / 59%

Actual

0 – 1

Updated

0 – 1xG 0.7–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

11% / 21% / 67%

Group H · 01:00

Cape Verde 🇨🇻v🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaGroup H

Original

1 – 1xG 1.3–1.3

36% / 28% / 36%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.3–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

37% / 28% / 34%

Group G · 04:00

New Zealand 🇳🇿v🇧🇪 BelgiumGroup G

Original

0 – 1xG 0.8–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

13% / 22% / 66%

Actual

1 – 5

Updated

0 – 2xG 0.7–2.1

9% / 20% / 71%

Group G · 04:00

Egypt 🇪🇬v🇮🇷 IranGroup G

Original

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.5(likeliest 1–1)

32% / 27% / 40%

Actual

1 – 1

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.4–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

36% / 27% / 37%

Group L · 22:00

Croatia 🇭🇷v🇬🇭 GhanaGroup L

Original

1 – 0xG 2.0–0.7(likeliest 2–0)

67% / 22% / 11%

Actual

2 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.9–0.8

61% / 24% / 15%

Group L · 22:00

Panama 🇵🇦v🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EnglandGroup L

Original

0 – 1xG 0.8–2.0(likeliest 0–2)

13% / 22% / 65%

Actual

0 – 2

Updated

0 – 2xG 0.6–2.2

7% / 18% / 75%

Sun 28 June

Group K · 00:30

Colombia 🇨🇴v🇵🇹 PortugalGroup K

Original

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

34% / 27% / 39%

Actual

0 – 0

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

34% / 28% / 38%

Group K · 00:30

DR Congo 🇨🇩v🇺🇿 UzbekistanGroup K

Original

0 – 1xG 1.2–1.3(likeliest 1–1)

33% / 28% / 38%

Actual

3 – 1

Updated

1 – 0xG 1.4–1.2(likeliest 1–1)

43% / 28% / 29%

Group J · 03:00

Jordan 🇯🇴v🇦🇷 ArgentinaGroup J

Original

0 – 2xG 0.6–2.1

8% / 19% / 73%

Actual

1 – 3

Updated

0 – 2xG 0.4–2.3

5% / 16% / 79%

Group J · 03:00

Algeria 🇩🇿v🇦🇹 AustriaGroup J

Original

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

32% / 28% / 40%

Actual

3 – 3

Updated

1 – 2xG 1.3–1.4(likeliest 1–1)

32% / 28% / 41%